民族地区旅游风险管理：形成机理、评价模型与治理对策

项目名称： 民族地区旅游风险管理：形成机理、评价模型与治理对策

项目编号： No.71203123

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 宏观管理与政策

项目作者： 詹丽

作者单位： 三峡大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 民族地区极易忽略旅游发展中的风险因素，其相对落后的经济社会条件，又极可能导致风险承受、控制能力的低水平。课题旨在揭示民族地区旅游风险的形成机理，为其旅游风险评价、治理提供有效的方法与对策，以促进其旅游业乃至生态、经济、社会的可持续发展。研究拟从触发机制、传导机制、影响机制等方面系统揭示民族地区旅游风险的形成机理；采用频次分析、聚类分析、未确知测度、层次分析、比较分析等方法，建立民族地区旅游风险因素识别指标体系、旅游风险客体危险性评价模型和旅游风险主体承受力评价模型、旅游风险主体控制力评价模型，进而构建基于主客体对接分析的旅游风险综合评价模型；在案例比较研究的基础上，提出民族地区旅游风险治理对策。创新之处是：（1）对民族地区旅游风险形成机理的系统揭示；（2）将风险主体能力纳入旅游风险评估，并构建基于主客体对接分析的旅游风险综合评价模型；（3）开辟旅游风险研究新视角，拓展民族旅游研究新领域。

中文关键词： 民族地区；旅游风险；形成机理；评价模型；治理对策

英文摘要： Ethnic areas in China often ignore the risk factors in tourism industry. And its undeveloped economic, social conditions most likely lead to their low levels of risk endurance and control .This project aims to reveal the formation mechanisms of tourism risks in ethnic regions and to provide effective methods and policies for tourism risk evaluation and management to ensure the sustainable development of tourism industry and ecology, economy, society in those areas. The main study contents include:(1) To reveal the formation mechanisms of tourism risks systematically from the trigger, transmission and impact mechanisms.(2)To establish the index system of tourism risk factors identification in ethnic areas, evaluation models of toursim risk object harmfulness, risk subject endurance ability & control ability and to build a comprehensive tourism risk evaluation model based on subject-object docking analysis by adopting methods of frequency analysis, hierarchical clustering, unascertained measurement, analytic hierarchy process and comparative analysis. (3)To put forward tourism risk governance policies in ethnic regions based on comparative analysis of cases. The main innovations of this project include:(1)Systematical revealing of tourism risk formation mechanisms in ethnic areas.(2)Taking risk subject ability

英文关键词： ethnic regions；risks in tourism development；formation mechanisms；evaluation models；governance policies