受自然因素制约的人类群体决策行为动力学

项目名称： 受自然因素制约的人类群体决策行为动力学

项目编号： No.11265011

项目类型： 地区科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 数理科学和化学

项目作者： 王旭明

作者单位： 宁夏大学

项目金额： 55万元

中文摘要： 受资源等自然因素制约的人类群体决策行为是少被关注的人类动力学研究新方向，本项目建议：(1)实证研究受自然因素制约的人类群体活动如生态移民、草原牧民转场等，揭示这类群体决策行为的统计特征，获得事件时间间隔、发生强度（移民数量、转场牧群规模等）的概率分布；获得事件的空间分布特征；揭示其动力学所遵循的基本规律。(2)建立受自然因素制约的人类群体决策行为的动力学模型，揭示自然变化与人类利益取向之间的反馈作用机制，探索人类群体决策行为规律的动力学根源；建立事件强度等变化的随机动力学方程，利用统计动力学方法，再现人类群体决策行为的统计规律，从而获得对受自然因素制约的人类群体行为的深刻理解，并能为政府管理和经济建设决策提供一定的启示或借鉴。(3)比较不同人类群体决策行为的实质差别，利用协同学思想提炼出人类群体行为模式的判别指标，从而建立人类群体决策行为模式的判别体系，揭示不同社会现象的物理机制。

中文关键词： 人类迁移行为；观点演化；实证统计规律；动力学模拟；物理描述

英文摘要： Human group decision behavior ruled by some natural factors is a new research field of human dynamics,but it is not yet paid enough attention.This project will focus on: (1)The empirical research on human group decision behavior.The data on the humuan group activities influenced by some natural factors are collected. The statistical characteristics of such human group decision behaviors will be obtained by the method of data mining. It is expected that this investigation can present the probability distributions of interevent times and event intensities, and other related spatial behaviors. So, the essential rules that dominate the dynamics of human will be revealed, and such human behaviors can be described quantitatively. (2)The physics mechanism of the human group decision behavior.This investigation is expected to suggest a dynamical model to mimic how the human group decisions are made, and grasp the feedback mechanism between changes of the nature and the profit driven practices of human. This work is also expected to find the origin of such human dynamics. More profound understandings to these human behaviors may be obtained by introducing some theories of statistical mechanics or some methods of statistical dynamics. These understandings may provide us with some helpful hints for the public service mana

英文关键词： Human migration dynamics；opinion evolution；Empirical statistical law；dynamics simulation；Physical description