滑坡强度定量预测方法研究

项目名称： 滑坡强度定量预测方法研究

项目编号： No.41302276

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 赵洲

作者单位： 西安科技大学

项目金额： 26万元

中文摘要： 滑坡强度定量预测是国内外滑坡风险定量评估研究的一个技术难点，对滑坡风险评估中承灾体易损性的定量分析具有重要的科学意义。本项目以陕西南部山区宁强县、勉县、略阳县滑坡为研究对象，在对滑坡进行野外详细调查与编录的基础上，借助于现场测绘、高分辨率遥感解译、GIS空间分析、经典土力学计算、数值模拟与物理模拟、能量守恒分析等理论和方法技术，分别从区域、区段、场地三种不同空间尺度分析研究滑坡强度与滑坡岩土体力学参数、空间几何参数、移动距离、速度等要素之间的关系，得出相应空间尺度的滑坡强度定量预测方法和计算模型，并将其应用于陕西南部山区滑坡灾害承灾体易损性的定量分析和评价。研究成果对滑坡风险定量评估具有重要的科学意义，对陕西南部山区滑坡灾害防灾减灾也具有重要的实用价值。

中文关键词： 滑坡强度；定量分析；敏感性；易损性；风险

英文摘要： Quantitative forecasting for landslide intensity is an big technical problem in the word, and has important scientific significance to vulnerability analysis in landslide risk quantitative evaluation. Based on the landslides survey and inventory of Ningqian, Mianxian and Lueyang located in Southern Mountainous Area of Shaanxi Province, by composite using site mapping, high-resolution remote sensing image interpretation, GIS analysis, classical mechanics calculation, numerical and physical simulation, the landslide quantitative forecaste methods were studied from area,local and site spatial scales, and the quantitative models between landslide intensity and the parameters of mechanical, geometric, movement distance and velocity of landslide were acquired. The model was also tested by the other regions landslides in Southern Mountainous Area of Shaanxi Province. The research has important scientific significance to landslide risk quantitative evaluation, also has important practical value for landslide prevention and mitigation in Southern Mountainous Area of Shaanxi Province.

英文关键词： landslide intensity；quantitative analysis；susceptibility；vulnerability；landslide risk assessment