基于生命初态信息表征的元器件工作寿命预测方法研究

项目名称： 基于生命初态信息表征的元器件工作寿命预测方法研究

项目编号： No.61201028

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 电子学与信息系统

项目作者： 黄姣英

作者单位： 北京航空航天大学

项目金额： 22万元

中文摘要： 针对传统寿命预测方法不能对单个元器件进行寿命预测，以及基于失效物理的寿命评定结果和实际工程表现相差甚远的问题，本项目以元器件装机使用前各质量与可靠性控制环节的检测信息、同批次样品的生命特征和寿命分布规律为数据源，开展基于生命初态信息表征的元器件个体工作寿命预测方法的应用基础研究。 项目研究以元器件生命特征表征机理为突破点，基于期重构模糊综合方法开展元器件生命信息序列分析，探索生命特征的动态变化规律；研究生命信息与潜在缺陷及寿命、生命初态信息与生命特征规律的动态相关性，提出依赖于关键生命初态信息的工作寿命的预测方法，实现元器件个体工作寿命的定量预测。 通过项目研究，对当前元器件使用控制过程中有潜在缺陷元器件的有效剔除，可提供更有力的理论依据和方法指导；同时为整机系统健康监控、寿命预测中对元器件可靠性基础数据的准确获得，提供更有效的技术支持。项目的研究成果具有重要的经济和军事应用价值。

中文关键词： 可靠性；寿命预测；建模；光电耦合器；

英文摘要： Since the traditional lifetime prediction methods were unsuitable for working lifetime prediction of components, and the assessment results of method based on physics-of- failure model has a big error, compared with the practical engineering. Applied basic research on characterization of initial life state based working lifetime prediction methods for components will be explored in this project. The life characteristics and the lifetime distribution of the same batch, together with the components' inspection information in process of all the quality and reliability control, prior to the components to be used, will be used as the data source. Firstly, mechanism characterization method of life features will be studied. Then by using the customized approach for segment reconstruction and fuzzy comprehensive algorithm, the sequence of life information will be analyzed and the dynamic changing trends of life features will be achieved. Thirdly, the dynamic relationship between life information, potential defect and lifetime distribution will be discussed. Along with the relationship between the initial life state information and the life features changing trends. Lastly, working lifetime prediction methods for components will be proposed, which based on the key initial life state information. And the quantitative pred

英文关键词： reliability；lifetime prediction；modeling；optocoupler；