我国西南喀斯特山区玉米旱灾风险评估与防范研究

项目名称： 我国西南喀斯特山区玉米旱灾风险评估与防范研究

项目编号： No.41301593

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 贾慧聪

作者单位： 中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 本研究基于灾害系统理论，引入基于物理过程的农作物EPIC模型，针对我国环境退化最为突出的地区-西南喀斯特山区的地貌特点，选取典型玉米品种，构建了"分区-分时"玉米旱灾风险评估模型。在分析"不同石漠化区脆弱性差异"的基础上，以水分胁迫累加值作为致灾因子，与玉米产量损失进行脆弱性曲线模拟，基于此开展"分区"（不同石漠化分区）玉米旱灾风险评估，探讨不同石漠化程度对玉米旱灾产量损失的影响机理。在分析"分时生物量损失差异"的基础上，揭示不同生育期玉米生物量对土层厚度的旱灾响应规律，基于此开展"分时"（不同生育期）玉米旱灾风险评估，并对模拟结果进行野外实证。依据喀斯特地貌对玉米旱灾成灾风险的影响机理，提出"分区-分时"的旱灾风险防范对策，为我国第三大玉米主产区-西南山地玉米区的农业灾害预警和保障国家粮食安全提供了重要的科学依据和技术支持。

中文关键词： 石漠化；EPIC模型；玉米旱灾；西南喀斯特地区；中国

英文摘要： Based on the disaster system theory and the EPIC crop model（Erosion Productivity Impact Calulator）, aiming at the topography characteristics of Southwest Karst mountainous, which is the most prominent area of environmental degradation in China, taking a typical maize varieties as the research object, "regional and growth-staging" risk assessment modes of maize drought disaster are put forward. Under the analysis of "regional vulnerability of different rocky desertification areas", taking the accumulated value of water stress as the hazard-inducing factors, the physical vulnerability curves were simulated with the maize yield loss. Based on this to carry out the "regional" maize drought risk assessment (different rocky desertification areas), the effect mechanism of degree of rocky desertification on maize drought yield loss was explored. Based on analyzing "growth-staging biomass loss varitation", the drought response rules of different maize growth-stages to the thickness of soil layer were revealed. Based on this, the "growth-staging" maize drought risk assessment (different growth-stages) was carried out, the validation field experiment of simulated results were done. According to the effect mechanism of Southwest Karst mountainous topography on maize drought risk, the risk prevention countermeasures of "diff

英文关键词： rocky desertification；EPIC crop model；maize drought;；Southwest Karst regions；China