基于多智能体与元胞自动机的区域生态安全优化模拟

项目名称： 基于多智能体与元胞自动机的区域生态安全优化模拟

项目编号： No.40801236

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2009

项目学科： 轻工业、手工业

项目作者： 杨青生

作者单位： 广东财经大学

项目金额： 19万元

中文摘要： 采用"自下而上"的元胞自动机（Cellular Automata, CA）建模方法，以区域生态安全指数为评价标准，在高分辨率的时间和空间尺度上评估区域空间格局变化的生态安全响应，以广东省珠江三角洲城市化快速发展的东莞市为例，分析空间格局变化的生态安全响应机理。以区域生态安全为基本要求，在传统CA模型中嵌入控制城市生态安全发展模式的变量，模拟生态安全的城市发展形态， 并对模拟城市形态的生态安全程度进行了评价，模拟的城市形态生态安全比实际要高。然而，这种生态安全的城市形态建设用地的紧凑度比较低，尽管这种模式生态安全程度提高了，也会带来资源消耗较多等问题。为解决该问题，采用约束性神经网络CA和修正的案例推理方法分别模拟了生态安全程度较高、建设用地紧凑的城市形态，形成城市、镇区建设用地紧凑生态安全较低的城市景观，而乡村形成建设用地紧凑度较低生态安全很高的乡村景观，城市（镇）和乡村间的过渡带形成城郊过渡景观。研究结果表明，在传统CA模型中嵌入影响城市发展的控制性指标，可以模拟生态安全的城市形态，进一步可以模拟生态安全的城市形态和建设用地紧凑发展的城市形态。共发表论文8篇，出国参加国际会议1次。

中文关键词： 生态安全；优化模拟；元胞自动机；紧凑城市;可持续发展

英文摘要： In order to simulate ecological security landscape patterens, A "bottom - up" cellular automata landscape development model are built in high resolution spatial and temporal scales based on source - sink landscape theory. In the model, source landscape for accelerating ecological security and sink landscape for restricting ecological security are found, and responses of ecological security of landscape patterens development are analysied too. Ecological security landscape patterens are simulated optimizing based on the principle of responses of ecological security of landscape development by imbedded control factor in traditional CA. The control factor for ecological security is imbedded into CA, calibrated by using logistical model to simulate ecological security land use dynamics. The result indicates that the simulation land use patterns is more ecologically secure than the real. How ever, the built land compact is low in the simulation land use patterns, which will result into new problems. To concern the compact of built land, a constraint CA calibrated by neural network is used to simulate compact urban land and low ecological security in urban and town districts while loose built land and high ecological security in village districts. Forthermore, a CA based on case based reason to simulate the kind of land use patterns. The result shows that ecological security becomes lower from 1988 to 2005 in Dongguan City. Based on ecological security CA, ecological security land use patterns can be simulated. Taking into account urban land compact in ecological security land use patterns, different land use scenerias can be simulated by CA when imbeding other control factors.CA will be an effective tool for simuating ecological security land use patterns. 8 papers were published in publication and we took part in 1 abroad geography meeting in USA.

英文关键词： ecological security；optimization simulation；cellular automata；compact urban land;sustainable development