新疆典型流域冰雪洪水对气候变化的响应机理与适应性管理对策研究

项目名称： 新疆典型流域冰雪洪水对气候变化的响应机理与适应性管理对策研究

项目编号： No.41271083

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 沈永平

作者单位： 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所

项目金额： 75万元

中文摘要： 冰雪水资源是新疆水资源的重要组成部分，冰川洪水、融雪洪水和冰凌洪水组成的冰雪洪水是新疆的主要的极端水文灾害事件，已观测到近十几年来冰雪洪水发生的频次和强度有加强趋势。近年来塔里木河流域的冰湖溃决洪水和冰川洪水及北疆春季的冰凌和融雪洪水已对当地的生命财产和社会经济发展带来巨大危害，对新疆带来的水资源安全、灾害等问题日益凸显。选择阿勒泰山南坡、天山北坡、伊犁河流域和塔里木河流域的典型冰雪洪水发生流域，采用野外调查、水文气象资料整编、文献回顾，建立冰雪洪水资料数据库，通过数据分析和模型模拟，开展气候变化对冰雪洪水的强度、频率及时空分布影响研究，分析新疆不同冰雪洪水的成因机理、分布特征和洪水水文过程，揭示不同冰雪补给类型河流的洪水水文过程年内分布特征、洪水频次和强度对气候变化响应的机理；提出应对气候变化下冰雪洪水安全的适应性管理对策，为防洪减灾和预警提供科学支撑。

中文关键词： 冰雪灾害；气候变化；冰冻圈水文效应；过程观测；适应机理

英文摘要： Snow and ice water resource is an important part of the water resources in Xinjiang, glacier floods, snowmelt floods and ice jam flood are mainly disasters kinds of extreme hydrological disaster events in Xinjiang, and frequencies and intensities observed of snow and ice floods have an enhancing trend during the last decades. In recent decades, glacial lake outburst floods and glacial floods in the Tarim River Basin of the southern Xinjiang, and spring snowmelt floods and ice jam floods in the northern Xinjiang have brought great damage to the lives, property, socio-economic development, and increasingly risk issues relatively to water resources security, disasters for the local authorizes of Xinjiang. We selected the four typical studied basins of the southern slopes of the Altay, the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, the Ili River basin and the Tarim River Basin, and build information database of the snow and ice floods based on the field investigation, hydrological and metorological record data，documents review. Based on data analyses and modeling simulation, we would carry out the studies on impacts of climate change on intensities, frequency and spatial and temporal distribution of snow and ice floods, and to analyze the mechanism of causes of different kind of snow and ice floods, the distribution

英文关键词： snow and ice disaster；climate change；hydrological effect of cyrosphere；process observation；adaptation mechanism