基于灰色系统理论的鲜活农产品供应链博弈均衡研究- - -构建科学的鲜活农产品供应链体系

项目名称： 基于灰色系统理论的鲜活农产品供应链博弈均衡研究- - -构建科学的鲜活农产品供应链体系

项目编号： No.71262029

项目类型： 地区科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 王永明

作者单位： 昆明理工大学

项目金额： 36.5万元

中文摘要： 现阶段，我国鲜活农产品供应链是以'公司+农户'为主导的供应链模式，然而这种模式的供应链在实际运行中经常出现严重的双重违约问题，二者之间较高的违约行为和松散的组织严重影响供应链的效率、稳定性和参与者的收益，制约着鲜活农产品供应链和市场的发展。本项目针对鲜活农产品供应链的特点，运用系统工程理论、控制论、博弈论、灰色系统理论及动态规划方法，围绕'公司+农户'供需模式占主导地位的鲜活农产品供应链博弈均衡问题展开研究。具体包括灰色市场价格下、灰色市场需求下、一次签约多次交易情况下、多个农户存在竞争条件下、多个公司存在竞争条件下等环境中的供需博弈问题。本课题将探明影响博弈结果的关键系统参数，研究参数的变化对博弈结果的影响；然后构建基于灰色系统理论的博弈均衡模型，求解最优的系统控制参数；使得在各种不确定的动态条件下，鲜活农产品供应链成员间的博弈达到均衡；供应链成员获得稳定的最大收益；供应链绩效达到最优。

中文关键词： 鲜活农产品；供应链管理；供应链协调；博弈论；优化

英文摘要： Among several mode of fresh agricultural products supply chain, the company-farmer mode is the main supply chain mode. However, the contract- breaking behavior in this supply chain seriously restricts the development of fresh agricultural products supply chain. This project will carry enough research on game principle between the participants of fresh agricultural products supply chain. In the research, we combine system engineering theory, cybernetics, game theory, grey system theory. The content includes game problem in grey price condition; game problem in grey market demand condition; game problem in grey price condition; game problem in the condition of "one time of contract signing many times of transaction"; game problem in the condition of one company-many farmer; game problem in the condition of many company- one farmer and game problem in the condition of many company-many farmer. This project will find out the key system parameters that affect mainly game results, find the effect mechanism of this system parameters, and then, construct the mathematical game model, find the optimize control parameters for fresh agricultural products supply chain. The jobs in this project will maximize the profits of company and farmer; optimize the performance of company-farmer mode of fresh agricultural products suppl

英文关键词： Fresh agricultural products；Management of supply chain；Supply chain coordination；Game theory；Optimization