水文干旱演变归因与定量评价方法研究

项目名称： 水文干旱演变归因与定量评价方法研究

项目编号： No.51309249

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2014

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 翟家齐

作者单位： 中国水利水电科学研究院

项目金额： 25万元

中文摘要： 水文干旱是联系气象、农业、社会经济干旱的一个关键环节。北方地区由于地表径流衰减，地下水超采严重，其水文干旱状态实质是地表、地下水资源的综合变化的具体表现，传统仅以地表径流为指标的水文干旱评价方法未能考虑地下水剧烈变化对水文干旱的影响，难以全面反映区域水文干旱的真实状态和形成过程。针对上述问题，本项目基于游程理论、标准径流指数等传统水文干旱评价方法，以流域分布式水循环模型为技术平台，选择海河北系为典型流域，将地下水指标作为输入信息，研究能够反映流域地表和地下水资源综合变化的水文干旱评价方法，分析水文干旱发生的频率、强度、持续时间和影响范围，研判水文干旱在变化环境条件下的时空演变规律，辨识影响水文干旱的关键驱动因子，定量计算气候变化、下垫面变化和水资源开发利用等因素对流域水文干旱演变的贡献率，进而探析流域水文干旱演变的形成过程和驱动机制，为流域水资源管理及干旱科学应对提供科学依据。

中文关键词： 水文干旱评估；干旱特征指标；标准水资源指数SWRI；归因辨识；海河北系

英文摘要： Hydrological drought is a key link connecting meteorology drought, agriculture drought and social economy drought. Due to the reduction of surface runoff, the ground water has become the main water sources for many cities in the northern part of China, thus causing serious overexploitation of ground water. Hydrological drought actually reflects integrated changes in surface and ground water resources. However, the quantitative evaluation of traditional hydrological drought only takes surface runoff as the indicator, but neglects the impact of violent changes in ground water. Therefore, it is difficult to comprehensively reflect the real status and evolutionary process of regional hydrological drought. This program selects the northern part of the Haihe River as a typical basin. By adopting such traditional evaluation methods as displacement theory and standard runoff index, taking the distributed hydrological cycle model as a technical platform and ground water index as input information, it aims to study the evaluation methods for hydrological drought to fully reflect the integrated changes of surface water and ground water. It aims to analyze the frequency, intensity, duration and influence scope in order to study the spatial-temporal evolution of hydrological drought under changing conditions, and identify th

英文关键词： Hydrological Drought Assessment；Drought Characteristics Index；Standard Water Resources Index (SWRI)；Attribution identification；the Northern Haihe River