面向“海上丝绸之路”的南海航线安全评价智能体模型研究

项目名称： 面向“海上丝绸之路”的南海航线安全评价智能体模型研究

项目编号： No.41501436

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 王加胜

作者单位： 云南师范大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 南海航线是“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的重要组成部分，同时还是我国能源运输的生命线。南海航线的安全畅通关系到国家海洋强国战略的实施。本项目拟在可视化分析、空间数据挖掘、智能体建模、遥感和GIS技术支持下，针对南海航线提取难（时间分辨率有限条件下海量离散舰船点航次识别与错误校正）、分析难（顾及离散航线清理的南海主要航线分析）、安全评价难（动态与静态、宏观与微观、传统与非传统影响因素并存）等难点与关键点，探索基于舰船数据的主要航线分析与提取方法、基于多源时空数据的航线安全空间综合评价方法、以及顾及救助可达性的航线安全优化方法，分析南海主要航线空间分布特征，构建南海航线安全空间综合评价智能体模型，提出优化航线的海上救助基地配置方案，为海上航线和救助基地的建设提供科学依据，服务于“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的可持续发展。

中文关键词： 多智能体模型；元胞自动机模型；区位配置模型；人工智能；灾害系统建模

英文摘要： The shipping lanes in the South China Sea (SCS) are important part of the “21 century Maritime Silk Route” and the lifeline of Chinese energy transit. Keeping the shipping lanes of the SCS open and safe concerns the implementation of Chinese stratege of marine power. There are three main difficulties to do this work: First, it is hard to recognize the ends of shipping lanes in the process of shipping lanes extraction for the limited temporal resolution; Second, it is hard to analyze main shipping lanes for there are many discrete shipping lanes; Third, it is hard to evaluate the safety of shipping lanes under the co-existence of dynamic and static, micro and macro, traditional and non-traditional factors. Supported by visualized analysis, spatial data mining, agent-based modeling, remote sensing and GIS technology, this project intends to (1) develop new methods on main shipping lanes extraction, spatial comprehensive evaluation and optimization of shipping lanes’ safety; (2) extract and analyze the spatial distribution of hierarchical shipping lanes in the SCS; (3) build a spatial comprehensive evaluation agent-based model of shipping lanes’ safety in the SCS; and (4) present a configuration scenarios of marine search and rescue (SAR) base to optimize the shipping lanes’ safety in the SCS. The research results will provide some scientific basis for the construction of maritime shipping channel and SAR base, and serve the sustainable development of the “21 century Maritime Silk Route”.

英文关键词： multi agents model;cellular automaton model;location-allocation model;artificial intellegence;hazard system modeling