考虑有限理性的供应链中断风险管理模型研究

项目名称： 考虑有限理性的供应链中断风险管理模型研究

项目编号： No.71272122

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 傅克俊

作者单位： 山东工商学院

项目金额： 46万元

中文摘要： 针对已有供应链中断风险管理把"决策者完全理性"作为解决问题的基本假设，借鉴行为经济学和实验经济学关于心理测量的方法，通过实验研究和模型研究的方法，将"前景理论"引入供应链中断风险管理，研究供应链中断风险最优再调度参照点与决策者先验信息、风险偏好和决策者对决策项目本身属性的主观感知的函数关系，揭示"有限理性"的供应链决策者在面对"中断风险"干扰时的心理偏好。研究供应链中断风险"价值函数"和"权重函数"的表达形式，并将其融入供应链中断风险管理模型，通过对模型的分析，提出并验证在中断风险情况下，"有限理性"对供应链决策者决策行为的影响性质和影响程度；提出在中断风险情况下，"有限理性"对供应链中断风险调度策略的影响性质和影响程度。为纠正已有供应链中断风险管理理论与现实的"不一致性"提供新的研究视角和理论方法，为已有的供应链中断风险管理理论在与现实的一致性、一般性和可处理性方面作出贡献。

中文关键词： 供应链；中断风险管理；有限理性；实验研究；

英文摘要： Based on the basic hypothesis, "decision maker is completely rational," which is used by supply chain disruption risks management to solve problem, and the theory and methodology relating to psychological measurement in behavioral economics and experimental economics, this project introduces "prospect theory" into the management of disruption risks in supply chain to study the functional relationship between the optimum rescheduling reference point of supply chain disruption risk and pre-test information and risk preference of the decision maker and the subjective perception of the decision maker on the internal property of the project，then the project will reveal the preference of bounded rational decision maker when facing supply chain disruptions risks. The project studies the expression formula of "value function" and "weight function" under the conditions of supply chain disruption risk and incorporates them into the supply chain disruption risk management models. Though the analyzing of the models, the project proposes and verifies the nature and degree of the influence of bounded rationality to the decision-making behavior under the conditions of supply chain disruption risk; the project reveals the nature and degree of the influence of bounded rationality to the scheduling strategy on supply chain disrup

英文关键词： Supply Chain；Disruption Risks Management；Bounded Rationality；Experimental Research；