全球气候变化背景下污染密集型产业国际转移的利益均衡:模型构建与实证研究

项目名称： 全球气候变化背景下污染密集型产业国际转移的利益均衡:模型构建与实证研究

项目编号： No.71273022

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 方虹

作者单位： 北京航空航天大学

项目金额： 55万元

中文摘要： 气候问题的国际谈判已上升为各国对环境容量、发展空间的争夺，其实质为经济利益之争。污染密集型产业成为碳减排与碳排放转移的重点和焦点领域，本项目以此为研究对象，融和环境库兹涅茨曲线与产业生命周期理论构建理论框架，从国家利益比较的视角，沿着贸易和投资两条主线展开产业转移利益分析，探索性地建立产业国际转移均衡分析方法和框架体系。在此基础上，对产业转移中的成本-收益进行测度，探索其变化规律的同时建立各利益主体的博弈模型，寻求国家利益与全球公共利益协调的机制设计和制度安排。 本课题将理论研究建立于对实际问题客观分析和定量描述的基础上，结合情景和博弈分析，综合应用经济、环境、社会等多学科的理论，科学地测度产业转移的成本收益，研究产业转移中真实利益分布和未来利益框架内合理的利益分配机制，为相关决策提供思路和解决方案。

中文关键词： 污染密集型产业；利益均衡；成本收益分析；情景分析；博弈分析

英文摘要： International negotiations on climate problems have risen to national competition for environmental capacity and development space, the essence of which is the dispute of economic benefits. This project regards pollution-intensive industries, which have become areas of priorities and concern in carbon emissions reduction and transfer, as the object of study.Then the pros and cons in international transfer of the very industries is analized along two main lines of trade and investment from a comparative perspective of national interests.We build a theoretical framework with integration of Environmental Kuznets Curve and industry life cycle theory,by which we explore the analytical methods and frame system for the balance of interests of transfer in pollution-intensive industries.Further more, we estimate the costs and benefits of industrial transfer in pollution-intensive industries while exploring its regularity and establish a game model for interrelated stakeholders to seek the mechanism design and institutional arrangements for coordination of national interests and the global public interest. Combined with scenario and game analysis, this subject establishes the theoretical study on the basis of objective analysis and quantitative description of the practical problems.Multi-disciplinary theories of economics

英文关键词： Pollution-intensie industries；Equilibrium of intrests；Cost-benefit analysis；Scenaro analysis；Game analysis