中国生育政策调整下的妇幼卫生需求和资源配置平衡研究

项目名称： 中国生育政策调整下的妇幼卫生需求和资源配置平衡研究

项目编号： No.71503053

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 白鸽

作者单位： 复旦大学

项目金额： 18万元

中文摘要： 2013年底党中央启动实施单独两孩政策，我国生育政策步入新一轮调整期。生育政策的调整，会释放育龄妇女的生育需求，由此带来妇幼卫生资源需求的增长，也会对当前已陷入总量不足和结构不良发展困境的妇幼卫生资源供给带来冲击。那么不同生育政策调整下会带来多少新增人口呢？新增人口带来的卫生服务需求是多少？分布如何？目前妇幼卫生资源配置如何呢？合理的配置应是什么？面对新增卫生服务需求，应如何调整资源的配置达到供需平衡呢？本研究从卫生服务供需双方的角度分别切入，构建生育政策调整下人口测算模型，预测需方的增长总量和结构；构建妇幼卫生资源配置标准模型，明确供方的理想配置总量和分布；构建供需平衡分布模型，借助地理信息系统对供需方的现状分布和调整方案进行模拟修正。在理论框架确立基础上，研究将在中国东中西地区进行实证研究，理论和实证结果将进一步结合和完善，为顺利过渡生育政策调整、实现妇幼卫生供需平衡和有序发展提供依据

中文关键词： 卫生政策；妇幼卫生；卫生资源配置；人口预测

英文摘要： In the end of 2013, China's fertility policy entered into a new period of adjustment. The change of fertility policy will stimulate the healthcare demand of reproductive age women and children , and will bring challenge to the health resources supply-side which has had the problem of total lack and structural unbalance for years.So how many newborns under different fertility policy adjustments？How to calculate the Additional Health demand？What is its Distribution How? How is current health resources allocation? What is a reasonable allocation should be? Faced with the new demand for health services, how to adjust the allocation of resources to achieve the supply-demand balance? From the perspective of both supply and demand side of health resources, the study will build fertility policy adjustments population projection model, to predict the total growth and structure of the demand side; will build a maternal and child health resource allocation standard model, to figure out an ideal total amount and distribution of the supply-side; will build a supply-demand equilibrium distribution model, to demonstrate and modify the current status and adjustment project by the geographic information system. Based on the theoretical framework, the study will conduct empirical research in three regions respectively from China’s east, middle and west regions. The theoretical and empirical results will be further integrated and improved, which will provide a basis for a smooth transition of fertility policy adjustment, and will promote to realize the supply-demand balance of maternal and child healthcare.

英文关键词： health policy;MCH;Health Resource Allocation;population projections