暖池区季节内振荡的变化及其对我国旱涝的影响

项目名称： 暖池区季节内振荡的变化及其对我国旱涝的影响

项目编号： No.41275080

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 巩远发

作者单位： 成都信息工程学院

项目金额： 86万元

中文摘要： 选取1980年代以来我国持续性"旱涝不同分布型年"，包括夏季江淮流域大范围洪涝（干旱）、华南华北大范围干旱（洪涝）年份、一些地区（长江流域）旱涝急转、冬季我国华北西南地区持续性干旱年份，用QuikSCAT海面风和海面风应力、OLR、SST及再分析资料，分析这些年份暖池（西太平洋-东印度洋）区域大气、海洋及海-气相互作用的季节内振荡和准双周振荡变化的年际差异；研究热带东印度洋、孟加拉湾、中国南海、菲律宾东部的热带西太平洋等暖池中关键海域的季节内振荡传播和变化特征差异；深入分析季节内振荡传播和变化与我国夏季旱涝不同分布和冬季不同区域干旱的联系，揭示暖池中关键海域季节内振荡变化对东亚季风环流系统变化和我国冬夏持续性旱涝事件影响的物理过程和作用机制。

中文关键词： 低频振荡；暖池；青藏高原；中高纬度；低频波列

英文摘要： Selected persistent drought-flood different distribution years in China since the 1980s, including summer flooding (drought) of the Yangtze and Huaihe River basin range, South China and North China area drought (flooding) year, droughts and flood rapid changes in some areas (Yangtze River), winter persistent drought years in North China and Southwest China. Used QuikSCAT sea surface wind and wind stress, the OLR, SST and re-analysis the data, the quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBO) and intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) of the atmosphere, ocean and ocean-atmosphere interaction in these years and their inter-annual differences will be investigated in the warm pool (the Western Pacific-East Indian Ocean) region. The differences of the QBO and ISO propagation and variation will be analyzed in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, South China Sea, the eastern Philippines and the tropical western Pacific. The relationships will be analysis in-depth between the propagation of intraseasonal oscillation and changes in China summer rainfall distribution and drought in different regions in winter. It will be reveal the physical processes and mechanisms that the intraseasonal oscillation of the key areas in the warm pool influence for the East Asian monsoon circulation system change and the sustainability of Chin

英文关键词： Low Frequency Oscillation(FLO)；Warm Pool；Tibetan Plateau；Extra-tropics area；FLO wave-train