基于气温影响的肾综合征出血热传播动力学模型研究

项目名称： 基于气温影响的肾综合征出血热传播动力学模型研究

项目编号： No.11501339

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 数理科学和化学

项目作者： 姚美萍

作者单位： 山西大学

项目金额： 18万元

中文摘要： 肾综合征出血热(简称HFRS)是由布尼亚病毒科汉坦病毒属中不同型病毒引起的一种人鼠共患传染病，会造成机体多脏器损害和功能障碍。我国是世界上HFRS发病最严重的国家，年发病数1-5万左右. 它的流行会受到气温及鼠类扩散等多种因素的影响。目前，对该类传染病的传播机制和流行规律，以及极端气候条件下的应急防控研究还很少。为此，本项目主要针对以上问题开展研究，主要包括：基于气温影响的鼠间HFRS传播机制、在多种病毒交叉感染下人鼠HFRS传播规律、基于反应-扩散方程的人鼠HFRS传播规律，建立HFRS的传播模型，分析模型的动力学性态；同时结合中国HFRS统计数据及特定区域的气候变化，利用统计学方法对模型参数进行估计与假设检验，预测中国HFRS流行规律和发展趋势，评估各种因素对HFRS传播的影响。本项目的研究不仅可以填补HFRS的空白，还可以对HFRS在气温影响下的防控策略提供科学的理论依据。

中文关键词： 肾综合征出血热；气温影响；基本再生数；预测与控制；反应-扩散方程

英文摘要： Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS) is an infectious disease infecting both human beings and mouse, which is caused by different species of hantavirus. It will cause multiple organs damage and dysfunction. It is the most serious disease in china compared to other countries, the annual incidence is from 10,000-50,000. The spread of it will be influenced by many factors such as temperature, rats' diffusion, etc. At present, there rarely is any result on the propagation mechanism and epidemic regularity of HFRS, and any research on prevention and emergency control extreme climate conditions of emergency under extreme weather conditions. It is exactly what this project will focus on, which including: the propagation mechanism of HFRS transmission model influenced by temperature, the propagation regularity of HFRS transmission under multi-viral cross infections in human and rats, the propagation regularity of HFRS transmission based on reaction-diffusion equation. We will establish the HFRS models and analyze the dynamical behavior of these models; Combing with real data in China and climate change in a specific area, using the method of evaluating parameter and optimization, we can apply the gained achievement to predict the discipline of HFRS transmission in China, evaluate the influences of different control strategies on the disease and find out the optimal strategy. The findings of this project will fill the gap on this topic both in China and abroad and the supposed results will be able to provide theoretical basis for HFRS control.

英文关键词： Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome;Influenced by temperature;Basic reproduction number;Prediction and control;Reaction-diffusion equation