基于模糊可变理论的梯级水库防洪调度模型研究

项目名称： 基于模糊可变理论的梯级水库防洪调度模型研究

项目编号： No.51509088

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 徐冬梅

作者单位： 华北水利水电大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 当前阶段的防洪调度是基于预报的调度，以预报的洪水过程做依据进行水库防洪调度，其调度结果往往受制于洪水预报误差的大小。现实的防洪调度涉及到自然、社会、经济、环境、生态等多个复杂的相互联系但又彼此制约的目标，防洪调度方案的选定与决策者的知识、经验、主观意识息息相关。如何使调度方案尽量少的受控于洪水预报的精确程度，充分体现库群防洪调度方案集生成过程中的中介过渡性、模糊性、动态可变性等特点，减少人为因素对防洪调度的影响，是值得深入研究的课题。本项目基于可变模糊集理论，结合滦河流域水库群，通过研究基于峰量综合判断的多目标模糊可变理论的洪水调度模型，揭示其补偿机理。在防洪调度风险因子量化方法及评价指标体系的基础上，以入库洪水预报误差的量化为重点，建立考虑洪水预报误差的水库群风险与效益协调防洪优化调度模型，使其更科学的指导水库群实际运行。

中文关键词： 防洪调度；可变模糊集；梯级水库；多目标决策

英文摘要： At present stage, flood control operation is on the premise of hydrological forecasting, The scheduling results are often subject to the size of the flood forecasting error.. The flood control operation related to a number of complex inter-linkages of the natural, social, economic, environmental, ecological and other constraints but interrelated goals, The selection for flood control program is closely related with decision makers' knowledge, experiences, subjective consciousness. It is a subject worthy of in-depth research that how to make the operation be affected as little as possible by the precise degree of flood forecasting, fully reflect Features of bridging, fuzzy, dynamic variability In the process of flood control program generated, and reduce the factor influence if the human on flood control. Based on variable fuzzy set theory, Combining the Luanhe River Cascade Reservoirs and studying on the multi-objective variable fuzzy flood control operation based on comprehensive judgment of flood peak and storage and discharge amount to reveal the compensation mechanism. Based on flood control operation risk factor quantification method and evaluation index system, to quantify the reservoir flood forecast error as the focus, modeling group risk and benefit coordination optimal flood dispatching model by considering the reservoir flood forecast error, and it is more actual scientific guidance of reservoirs.

英文关键词： flood control operation;variable fuzzy sets;cascade reservoir;multi-objective decision