双低油菜生产灰色系统全程管理研究

项目名称： 双低油菜生产灰色系统全程管理研究

项目编号： No.71473072

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 李春生

作者单位： 湖北工程学院

项目金额： 63万元

中文摘要： 我国是世界油菜生产和消费大国，而以往侧重于常规油菜生产静态的、单一的技术研究。选题针对当前低芥酸、低硫甙油菜生产特定管理，急需动态的、系统的量化管理调控模型。基于长期实证调研和案例积累，运用软科学综合集成方法和灰色系统理论，优化双低油菜生产灰色系统识别、诊断、建模、干预的映射参数和指标体系。创建双低油菜生产影响因素灰色评估模型，揭示气候、政策、科技、经济等因素对双低油菜生产作用的主次特征、优劣关系和关联程度；创建双低油菜生产丰歉产量灰色预测模型，揭示生产供给、市场需求、灾变风险和高产多抗规律；创建双低油菜生产轻型高效灰色决策模型，揭示优良品种-生态环境-关键技术三维最佳结构功能；创建双低油菜生产质量安全灰色控制模型，揭示可追溯的危害分析及关键控制点。从而，构建双低油菜生产灰色系统监测预警全程管理模式，提出我国双低油菜生产发展对策和政策建议，为保障双低油菜消费安全提供理论依据及应用性支持。

中文关键词： 双低油菜；生产；灰色系统；全程管理

英文摘要： China is a major consumer as well as a major producer of rapeseed in the world. The previous researches mainly focused on the static and single technical studies on the traditional rapeseed production. In view of the fact that the current low erucic acid and low glucosinolate rapeseed production is in great need of a dynamic, systematic and quantitative management model to control its specific administration. This research, taking the Grey System Approach as the frame work, by applying the soft science meta-synthesis methodology, puts forward the double-low rapeseed (canola) production optimization strategies on the basis of a long-term empirical research and cases accumulation, i.e. the optimization of the grey system identification, diagnosis, modeling, intervention mapping parameters and index system. And it suggests to create the canola production grey system analysis, evaluation, prediction, decision making and control models, and reveals the dominant factors affecting the canola production (such as the climate, policy, science and technology, economic and other factors), and reveals their correlation with the traceability of the hazard analysis and critical control points so as to create a three-dimensional optimization model (excellent canola species-ecological environment-key technology) in which the best structure and function are realized, for people to master the rules of canola production with high yield and fine quality and learn the correlation between its production, supply and the market requirements to avoid the catastrophe risk. It is hoped that the findings of this research will provide theoretical basis and application support for the grey system monitoring and early warning whole-process management mode for the canola production so as to ensure its consumption security.

英文关键词： canola;production;grey system approach;overall management