An International Agreement to Prevent the Premature Creation of Artificial Superintelligence

Many experts argue that artificial superintelligence (ASI), if developed prematurely, poses catastrophic risks including human extinction from misaligned ASI, geopolitical instability, and misuse by malicious actors. This report proposes an international agreement to prevent the premature development of ASI until AI development can proceed without these risks. The agreement halts dangerous AI capabilities advancement while preserving access to current, beneficial AI applications. The proposed framework centers on a coalition led by the United States and China that would restrict the scale of AI training and dangerous AI research. Due to the lack of trust between relevant parties, verification is a key part of the agreement. Limits on the scale of AI training are operationalized by FLOP thresholds and verified through the tracking of AI chips and verification of chip use. Dangerous AI research--that which advances toward artificial superintelligence or endangers the agreement's verifiability--is stopped via legal prohibitions and multifaceted verification. We believe the proposal would be technically sufficient if implemented today, but advancements in AI capabilities or development methods would hurt its efficacy. Simultaneously, there is not yet political will for such an agreement. Despite these concerns, we hope this agreement can provide direction for AI governance research and policy.