Modern learning systems increasingly interact with data that evolve over time and depend on hidden internal state. We ask a basic question: when is such a dynamical system learnable from observations alone? This paper proposes a research program for understanding learnability in dynamical systems through the lens of next-token prediction. We argue that learnability in dynamical systems should be studied as a finite-sample question, and be based on the properties of the underlying dynamics rather than the statistical properties of the resulting sequence. To this end, we give a formulation of learnability for stochastic processes induced by dynamical systems, focusing on guarantees that hold uniformly at every time step after a finite burn-in period. This leads to a notion of dynamic learnability which captures how the structure of a system, such as stability, mixing, observability, and spectral properties, governs the number of observations required before reliable prediction becomes possible. We illustrate the framework in the case of linear dynamical systems, showing that accurate prediction can be achieved after finite observation without system identification, by leveraging improper methods based on spectral filtering. We survey the relationship between learning in dynamical systems and classical PAC, online, and universal prediction theories, and suggest directions for studying nonlinear and controlled systems.
翻译:现代学习系统越来越多地与随时间演化且依赖于隐藏内部状态的数据进行交互。我们提出一个基本问题:何时仅通过观测就能学习这样的动态系统?本文提出了一个研究计划,旨在通过下一标记预测的视角来理解动态系统中的可学习性。我们认为,动态系统中的可学习性应作为一个有限样本问题进行研究,并应基于底层动态的特性,而非结果序列的统计特性。为此,我们给出了由动态系统诱导的随机过程的可学习性表述,重点关注在有限预热期后每个时间步上一致成立的保证。这引出了一个动态可学习性的概念,它捕捉了系统结构(如稳定性、混合性、可观测性和谱特性)如何决定在可靠预测成为可能之前所需的观测数量。我们在线性动态系统的案例中阐释了该框架,表明通过利用基于谱滤波的非恰当方法,无需系统辨识即可在有限观测后实现准确预测。我们综述了动态系统中的学习与经典PAC学习、在线学习及通用预测理论之间的关系,并提出了研究非线性和受控系统的方向。