《工程》是中国工程院(CAE)于2015年推出的国际开放存取期刊。其目的是提供一个高水平的平台,传播和分享工程研发的前沿进展、当前主要研究成果和关键成果;报告工程科学的进展,讨论工程发展的热点、兴趣领域、挑战和前景,在工程中考虑人与环境的福祉和伦理道德,鼓励具有深远经济和社会意义的工程突破和创新,使之达到国际先进水平,成为新的生产力,从而改变世界,造福人类,创造新的未来。 期刊链接:https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/engineering

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Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation is the problem of inferring how long a certain industrial asset can be expected to operate within its defined specifications. Deploying successful RUL prediction methods in real-life applications is a prerequisite for the design of intelligent maintenance strategies with the potential of drastically reducing maintenance costs and machine downtimes. In light of their superior performance in a wide range of engineering fields, Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are natural candidates to tackle the challenges involved in the design of intelligent maintenance systems. In particular, given the potentially catastrophic consequences or substantial costs associated with maintenance decisions that are either too late or too early, it is desirable that ML algorithms provide uncertainty estimates alongside their predictions. However, standard data-driven methods used for uncertainty estimation in RUL problems do not scale well to large datasets or are not sufficiently expressive to model the high-dimensional mapping from raw sensor data to RUL estimates. In this work, we consider Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) as possible solutions to the aforementioned limitations. We perform a thorough evaluation and comparison of several variants of DGPs applied to RUL predictions. The performance of the algorithms is evaluated on the N-CMAPSS (New Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation) dataset from NASA for aircraft engines. The results show that the proposed methods are able to provide very accurate RUL predictions along with sensible uncertainty estimates, providing more reliable solutions for (safety-critical) real-life industrial applications.

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Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation is the problem of inferring how long a certain industrial asset can be expected to operate within its defined specifications. Deploying successful RUL prediction methods in real-life applications is a prerequisite for the design of intelligent maintenance strategies with the potential of drastically reducing maintenance costs and machine downtimes. In light of their superior performance in a wide range of engineering fields, Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are natural candidates to tackle the challenges involved in the design of intelligent maintenance systems. In particular, given the potentially catastrophic consequences or substantial costs associated with maintenance decisions that are either too late or too early, it is desirable that ML algorithms provide uncertainty estimates alongside their predictions. However, standard data-driven methods used for uncertainty estimation in RUL problems do not scale well to large datasets or are not sufficiently expressive to model the high-dimensional mapping from raw sensor data to RUL estimates. In this work, we consider Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) as possible solutions to the aforementioned limitations. We perform a thorough evaluation and comparison of several variants of DGPs applied to RUL predictions. The performance of the algorithms is evaluated on the N-CMAPSS (New Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation) dataset from NASA for aircraft engines. The results show that the proposed methods are able to provide very accurate RUL predictions along with sensible uncertainty estimates, providing more reliable solutions for (safety-critical) real-life industrial applications.

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