不确定环境下多态复杂系统重要度分析方法研究

项目名称： 不确定环境下多态复杂系统重要度分析方法研究

项目编号： No.71271170

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 司书宾

作者单位： 西北工业大学

项目金额： 56万元

中文摘要： 不确定环境因素改变了设计环境下系统结构和零（部）件的固有寿命分布及故障发生机理，增加了系统故障的随机性、相依性和共因失效等复杂特征，使故障预测、安全防护以及风险分析更为复杂和困难，是导致系统出现灾难后果的主要因素。基于重要度理论探索不确定环境因素对复杂系统的作用机理及其分析优化方法是解决该问题的关键，也是当今重要度领域研究的热点。 本项目研究的不确定环境因素作用于系统过程机理及其效能函数表达，不仅揭示了不确定环境因素作用于系统的规律，而且定量化描述了不确定环境因素对系统的影响；典型多态系统外因重要度计算方法将传统重要度理论从系统内部视角发展到了系统与环境范畴，解决了具有相依性、共因失效等特征的系统重要度计算的难题，丰富了重要度理论体系；基于数据驱动的多态复杂系统外因重要度建模及面向不确定环境的多态复杂系统优化方法对于提高复杂系统可靠性、安全性及风险预测水平具有重要的理论和现实意义。

中文关键词： 外因；多态系统；重要度；贝叶斯网络；可靠性优化

英文摘要： Environmental uncertainty could change life distribution and failure mechanism of system structure and system components from what it is under designed environment, which adds more complex characteristics such as randomness, dependency and common cause failure to system failure. Therefore, it is more difficult to conduct failure prediction, safety protection and risk analysis and unexpected system failure may lead to disastrous consequences. Based on the theory of importance measures in reliability, the research into impacts of environmental uncertainty on complex systems' functional mechanism and optimized methodology to increase complex systems' reliability, safety and risk prediction ability is of high importance. This project conducted research on: (1) The influence mechanism and performance function of uncertain environment on the system. They not only discover the rules of uncertain environments on system, but also describe the effects of uncertain environments on system quantitatively. (2) The computation method of external factor importance measure for typical multi-state systems. It extends traditional importance measures from internal system to system-environment category and enriches the framework of reliability theory. It overcomes the difficulty of importance computation for systems with dependency

英文关键词： external factor；multi-state system；importance measure；Bayesian network；reliability optimization