面向任务成功性的可修系统重要度分析及优化

项目名称： 面向任务成功性的可修系统重要度分析及优化

项目编号： No.71471147

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 蔡志强

作者单位： 西北工业大学

项目金额： 60万元

中文摘要： 任务成功性是指装备在规定的任务剖面中能够使用且完成规定功能的能力，它取决于组件可靠性和维修性。目前，任务成功性已经成为衡量系统保障能力的重要指标。基于重要度理论，探索组件可靠性及维修性对系统任务成功性的影响机理，是系统任务成功性瓶颈识别及优化的关键所在，其对于提升我国高端装备的保障能力具有重要的科学意义和实用价值。 本项目以运行时间和运行性能为任务成功衡量标准，建立可修系统任务成功性评估模型，将任务成功性评估从二态系统扩展到多态系统；提出一套面向任务成功性的可修系统重要度原理模型及分析方法，突破传统重要度分析理论仅对可靠性求导的局限性，丰富了系统重要度分析理论体系；分析任务成功重要度在典型结构系统中的计算方法、工程意义和变化规律，为可修系统任务成功性优化提供理论支撑；构建可修系统任务成功性优化模型，基于任务成功重要度和启发式算法建立可修系统优化模型求解算法，并验证其正确性和效率性。

中文关键词： 重要度分析；任务成功性；可修系统；系统建模；系统优化

英文摘要： Mission success probability (MSP) represents the availability and ability that the equipment can fulfill requested function within certain mission phase, which mainly depends on the reliability and maintainability of components. Nowadays, MSP has been a very important criterion to evaluate the supportability of sytems. So, based on the theory of importance measures, this project will discuss the effect of component's reliability and maintainability on the MSP of system. This is a key point in the bottleneck identification and optimization for system MSP. It is also of great scientific meaning and practical value for improving the supportability of national advanced equipment. Taking the operation time and operation performance as the requests of mission success, this project builds the MSP evaluation model for repairable system, which extends the MSP evaluation from binary repairable system to multi-state repairable system.The principle model and analysis method of important measure for repairable system with MSP is proposed, which breaks the limitation of only focusing on component reliability in traditional important measures. The MSP importance expands the theory frame of importance measures.The calculation method, engineering meaning, influence rule of component MSP importance in typical structure system are analyzed, which will support the MSP optimization of repairable system.The MSP optimization model of repairable system is established and its corresponding optimization algorithm is put forward based on the MSP importance and heuristic algorithm.A case study is implemented to are verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed optimization model and algorithm.

英文关键词： importance measure;mission success probability;repairable system;system modeling;system optimization