绿洲适宜规模的不确定性研究

项目名称： 绿洲适宜规模的不确定性研究

项目编号： No.41471031

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 地质学

项目作者： 桂东伟

作者单位： 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所

项目金额： 86万元

中文摘要： 目前新疆尤其是塔里木盆地南缘绿洲的高速扩张，为绿洲适宜规模研究提供迫切的现实诉求。而当前不确定性思想、理论与方法的日趋完善与广泛应用，也促使我们重新审视研究对象并重视其内在的不确定性。绿洲发展严重受水资源约束，更受政策导向影响，无论哪方面都充斥着不确定性，故其适宜规模也必体现出不确定性特征，但这些特征如何体现？本研究以塔南策勒绿洲为典型研究区，以水为媒从多视角、多学科角度，全面解构影响绿洲发展的各自然、人为模块；并通过模型模拟或因素参数化等数理手段，分析诸模块的不确定性特征；最后在绿洲适宜规模概念模型的构建、同化改进基础上，利用MCMC为主的贝叶斯理论，推导各模块不确定性下绿洲适宜规模的不确定性分布范围。研究结果用于判别当前绿洲规模是否合理的同时，对将来绿洲适宜规模进行预测；并基于可能出现规模提供相关管理措施建议。不确定性理论的运用，客观反映绿洲演化规律的同时，也丰富绿洲生态学的研究内容。

中文关键词： 不确定性；水文过程；水文模型；绿洲规模；MCMC

英文摘要： Recently the oases of Xinjiang, especially of south rim of Tarim Basin, is expanding greatly. Thus it is becoming urgent question that how large oasis scale is suitable and sustainable. Uncertainty theory and algorithms get rapid development in recent 10 years, and it make us to re-examine our study area and need us to pay more attention on its inherent uncertainty characteristics. The oasis's development is constrained by the water supply and utilization, and also effected by the goverment policies in large degree. It can be found that uncertainty characteristics exist in every aspect above, thus the final suitable oasis scale must display uncertainty traits. However, what are these uncertainty characteristics and how to show these uncertainty to researchers? In this study, we selected the Cele Oasis located south rim of Tarim Basin as typical research area. Firstly, we comprehensively analysize the nature and human factors influencing oasis development from multi-discipline and multi-angle. Secondly, we analysize these factor's uncertainty through modeling and parameterizing factors methods. Last, we will build a concept modle about identifying oasis suitable scale after data assimilation and modification, and then the MCMC algorithm will be mainly used to identify the uncertainty of suitable oasis scale based on the uncertainty analysises of factors. These results will be firstly used to identify whether present oasis scale is suitable, and then will be used to predict future suitable oasis scale, and also can be used to provide suitable management suggestions in the situation that oasis scale has be determined by goverment. Thus this research will finally provide scientific advices to local government about oasis expanding, and then support oasis ecological safty and sustainable development. Using uncertainty theory and methods in the oasis research, not only can reflect oasis evolution direction effectively, but also enrich research content of oasis ecology.

英文关键词： uncertainty;hydrologic process;hydrologic model;oasis scale;MCMC