基于系统动力学城市燃气管网动态风险评估体系研究

项目名称： 基于系统动力学城市燃气管网动态风险评估体系研究

项目编号： No.51508110

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 建筑环境与结构工程学科

项目作者： 刘爱华

作者单位： 广东工业大学

项目金额： 20万元

中文摘要： 城市燃气管网动态风险评估呈现的是管网风险的动态变化趋势，相比静态风险评估更加科学和富有指导意义。本项目通过对管网失效影响因素及关联性分析，结合多因素耦合作用下管道失效机理的实验研究，构建燃气管网失效概率的动态计算模型。利用CFD和Phast等软件模拟燃气沿地面和沟渠扩散的动态演变行为，获得事故后果分析模型。从系统动力学与动态风险评估的融合方式入手构建基于系统动力学城市燃气管网动态风险评估模型，把燃气管网监测系统与GIS有机结合，实时动态获取风险评估所需数据；借助模型的仿真实验，分析其风险控制策略。研究关键在于理清多因素的耦合机制和管道的失效机理，提出实时动态获取风险评价所需数据的方法。主要特色是通过内在变化机理的分析，创建基于系统动动力学城市燃气管网的动态风险评估模型，有效解决系统风险的时空变化问题。所形成的城市燃气管网动态风险评估体系可实现对风险动态跟踪和风险控制的目标，能为城市燃气管道的完整性管理奠定理论基础。

中文关键词： 城市燃气管网；动态风险评估；系统动力学；失效概率；事故后果分析

英文摘要： The dynamic risk assessment method of urban gas pipeline network presents the change trend of systemic risk, so its assessment result is more scientific and guidance significance than the static risk assessment methods. Based on the analysis of influence factors and relevance, the dynamic computing model of failure probability of urban gas pipeline network will be built through the experimental study on failure mechanism of gas pipeline network impacted by the coupling multiple factors. The dynamic evolution behavior will be imitated using simulation software, such as CFD and Phast when gas diffuses along the ground and ditches. Then the concentration distribution characteristic and the models of accident consequence analysis will be obtained. The fusion way will be explored between the system dynamics and dynamic risk assessment of urban gas pipeline network, and the dynamic risk assessment model of urban gas pipeline network based on System Dynamics will be set up. The data of spatial and temporal integration will be gotten real-time and dynamic by the combination between the monitoring systems of gas pipeline network and GIS. The risk control strategy will be analyzed by simulation experiments of risk assessment model. The key of research is to clarify the coupling mechanism of multiple factors and the failure mechanism of gas pipeline，and the method to propose real-time and dynamic the data for risk assessment. The main feature is to create the the dynamic risk assessment model of urban gas pipeline network based on System Dynamics by the mechanism analysis of risk change, and to solve effectively the problem of spatial and temporal variations of systemic risk. The dynamic risk assessment system of urban gas pipeline network can achieve to dynamic track in the risk of urban gas pipeline and risk control, and the target of prevention and warning in advance for gas accidents. It is very meaningful to obtain and apply the research achievements for revealing the dynamic response of urban gas pipeline risk state with the space-time change of the affecting factors. It can provide the theoretical basis for urban gas pipeline integrity management.

英文关键词： urban gas pipeline network;dynamic risk assessment;System Dynamics;failure probability;accident consequence analysis