基于Budyko理论的年径流频率分布公式与应用

项目名称： 基于Budyko理论的年径流频率分布公式与应用

项目编号： No.51479139

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 水利工程

项目作者： 熊立华

作者单位： 武汉大学

项目金额： 80万元

中文摘要： 受气候变化和人类活动影响，很多流域的年径流水文资料存在非一致性，导致基于一致性假设的传统年径流频率计算方法失效。目前的非一致性水文频率分析，更多局限于研究径流的统计参数随时间的变化规律。但基于历史观测资料得到的统计参数随时间的变化规律仅在过去的时间域上有效，仍然无法推广到未来的时间域。因此需要提出新的年径流频率分布理论。本项目将以年径流为研究对象，基于Budyko模型，分析年尺度的流域水量和能量平衡，建立一个物理机制明确，能够考虑气候变化影响的年径流频率分布公式。主要研究内容包括：年径流序列非一致性分析；基于Budyko理论的年径流频率分布公式推导；多种年径流频率分布方法的应用与比较；气候变化场景下的设计年径流及不确定性分析。通过该项目的研究，揭示气候变化对年径流频率分布影响的物理机制，为气候变化情景下水资源开发利用和水利工程运行管理提供科学的水文频率分析理论和可靠的设计结果。

中文关键词： 年径流；频率分析；水量平衡；气候变化

英文摘要： The time series of annual runoff observations has exhibited nonstationarity in many watersheds due to climate change and human activities, thus leading to the invalidity of the traditional runoff frequency analysis methods based on the stationarity assumptions.The current frequency analysis methods of nonstationary annual runoff series are mainly focused on how the statistical parameters of runoff have changed with time. However, the findings about the past temporal change of the statistical parameters are based on historical observations and cannot be extended to the future scenarios of climate change. Hence, it is very necessary to put forward new theory and method for annual runoff frequency analysis. The objective of this proposal is to establish a physically-based annual runoff frequency formula by adopting Budyko theory to describe the annual runoff generation mechanism. The major research work includes: nonstationarity analysis of annual runoff series; derivation of a Budyko-based annual runoff frequency formula; application and comparison of different annual runoff frequency methods; and uncertainty analysis of annual runoff frequency methods under climate change. It is believed that this proposal will reveal the physical mechanism behind the impacts of climate change on annual runoff frequency, and provide an effective and reliable method for annual runoff frequency analysis under future climate change, which will be very helpful for the decision making in long-term sustainable water resources development.

英文关键词： annual runoff;frequency analysis;water balance;climate change