放牧经营制度的生态效应及在政策管制下的变迁研究——基于内蒙古中西部数据

项目名称： 放牧经营制度的生态效应及在政策管制下的变迁研究——基于内蒙古中西部数据

项目编号： No.71263033

项目类型： 地区科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 营刚

作者单位： 内蒙古大学

项目金额： 36万元

中文摘要： 草原退化是中国牧业面临的严重问题，近年来中国逐步加强草原生态管制，但目前急需评估管制政策的效果。课题组调研中发现，牧业地区存在合作放牧和自主经营两类经营方式，且合作放牧具有更低的载畜量水平，但现实中合作放牧方式比例较小（小于20%）。博弈分析发现，管制宽松有利于形成合作放牧，而严格管制则限制合作放牧，这一结论已被初步调研支持。我们推测目前的管制政策将诱发放牧经营制度变迁，制度变迁又将对草原生态造成重要影响。为证实这一假说，我们将运用制度分析和发展（IAD）框架对内蒙古中西部典型牧业地区进行调研分析，并基于契约理论、行为经济学和博弈论构建放牧契约模型，探讨放牧行为、制度、管制政策与生态的联系机制，最后利用调研数据实证检验模型的有效性。本课题从放牧行为合约的角度阐明牧民行为、制度与生态（载畜量）的关系机制，探讨管制政策对牧业制度变迁进而对草原生态的影响机制，为国家草原治理提供量化的依据和参考。

中文关键词： IAD；草原退化；制度演化；草原管制；牧民行为

英文摘要： Grassland degradation is a serious problem of chinese grassland animal husbandry.In recent years, China has strengthened the grassland ecology control, but there is an urgent need to assess policies effect. The research team find there are two kinds of grazing mode, cooperation and self-operation, and grazing cooperation is closely related to low grazing capacity,but there are few proportion of cooperation which is less than 20%. Game analysis found that loose-control policies benefit grazing cooperation, while strictly control limit cooperation contracts,which have been supported by pilot studies. We assume that the present control policy induce change of grazing operation institutions, which in turn influences grassland ecology. To prove this hypothesis, we will use institution analysis and development (IAD) framework to investigate pastoral area of the midwest of Inner Mongolia, and adopt contract theory, behavioral economics, and game theory to construct a grazing contractual model, and discusse relation mechanism between the grazing behaviors, institution, the control policy and grassland ecological, finally using survey data to empirical test validity of the model. This project will clarify relation mechanism of herdsman's action ,institution and grazing ecology from view of grazing behaviour contract , a

英文关键词： IAD；grassland degradation；institution evolution；grassland control；herdsmen behavior