廉价协商环境下制造商基于信任度的产量决策及感知风险管理研究

项目名称： 廉价协商环境下制造商基于信任度的产量决策及感知风险管理研究

项目编号： No.71501128

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 韩广华

作者单位： 上海交通大学

项目金额： 18万元

中文摘要： 信息不对称是供应链常有的现象，企业在实践中常采用廉价协商(cheap-talk)进行信息传递。廉价协商中，制造商根据信任程度评价所获需求信息的可靠性并做出产量决策，然而鲜有文献从理论角度研究：信任程度对制造商产量决策的影响和不完全信任导致的风险管理等问题。因此，针对制造商与零售商采用的廉价协商信息传递模式，本项目拟首先分析廉价协商中信任形成的机理、构建信任评价模型和信任更新模型；在此基础上，分别研究单交易期和多交易期情况下制造商产量决策；进而分析多交易期时制造商产品族产量决策；最后探讨制造商不完全信任导致的感知风险管理策略。本研究基于廉价协商的实践展开，可以为制造企业产量决策和风险管理提供理论支持，也可以丰富现有供应链需求信息共享理论和风险管理理论，具有重要的研究意义和经济价值。

中文关键词： 廉价协商；信任；产量决策；感知风险；供应链管理

英文摘要： Information asymmetry often exists in supply chains, thus firms usually adopt a new type of communication, cheap-talk, in supply chain information sharing. In cheap-talk systems, manufacturers evaluate the reliability of received demand information based on their feeling of trust. After evaluating the informaiton, the manufacturers decide their production plans. However, there is few theorical study focusing on trust in cheap-talk systems and studying the following production and distrust-induced risk management Therefore,this project will focus on a cheap-talk system with a two-tier supply chain and study how the manufacturer can optimize production decisions and the corresponding distrust-induced perceive risk management.The study will be proceed along with the following sequence: Firstly, we shall analysis the development of trust in cheap-talk systems, followed by building the trust level evaluation model and trust updating model. On this basis, we shall study the manufacturer’s production decisions in single transaction and multiple transactions, respectively. Then, we shall suggest the optimal production decisions of a product family under multiple transactions. Lastly, the distrust-induced perceived management will be provided based on a threshold control policy. This study is motivated by the industrial practice of cheap-talk, will assist in manufacturers’ production decisions and mitigate the distrust-induced perceived risk, while the research achievements will also provide theoretical contributions on supply chain information sharing and risk management theories. Thus, this study will advance existing theoretical works and also be instructive to industries.

英文关键词： cheap-talk;trust;production decision;perceived risk;supply chain management