基于计划行为理论的HPV疫苗支付意愿与需求预测研究

项目名称： 基于计划行为理论的HPV疫苗支付意愿与需求预测研究

项目编号： No.71503196

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 常捷

作者单位： 西安交通大学

项目金额： 17万元

中文摘要： 我国是人类乳头瘤病毒（HPV）高感染率国家，妇女宫颈癌发病率与死亡率逐年增高，宫颈癌防控面临重大挑战。HPV疫苗能有效预防HPV感染，已在大多数国家和地区得到应用，在我国上市也已成为必然趋势。基于我国现实，HPV疫苗将首先作为自费疫苗提供。然而，我们在前期研究中发现：价格因素严重阻碍了我国自费疫苗推广，极大地限制了个体接种服务利用和人群接种率提高。为此，本课题进行以下深入研究：1）前瞻性的应用条件价值法测量目标人群HPV疫苗的支付意愿；2）将社会心理学理论引入分析框架，探索HPV疫苗支付意愿的心理因素和个体决策过程；3）构建我国目标人群HPV疫苗需求函数，预测价格与需求对应关系。本研究将为探索有效可行的HPV疫苗促进接种策略和合理的定价筹资机制提供循证支持，促进自费疫苗接种服务得到最大程度的有效利用。为HPV疫苗推广提供科学证据，贡献于我国HPV感染率降低、宫颈癌防控，乃至女性健康的改善。

中文关键词： 支付意愿；人类乳头瘤病毒疫苗；需求预测；计划行为理论；条件价值法

英文摘要： The prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) is high in China. In recent years, the cervical cancer incidence rate and mortality rate increased rapidly in China. The prevention and control of cervical cancer has been a major challenge for the country. HPV vaccines are a kind of effective vaccines to prevent HPV infection, has been utilized in most countries and regions worldwide. The licensure and utilization of HPV vaccines in China is an inevitable trend. Based on China’s reality, HPV vaccine will be firstly treated as self-paid vaccines which the full price of the vaccine would be charged. However, our previous studies have found that the monetary cost is the paramount impediment for the promotion of self-paid vaccines in China, limiting individual utilization of vaccination services and the vaccination coverage. To this end, the project will carry out following research: 1) to measure the willingness-to-pay for HPV vaccines of the target population applying contingent valuation method; 2) to combine social psychology theory into the analytical framework to explore the psychological factors and decision-making process behind willingness-to-pay; 3) to estimate the target population’s HPV vaccine demand function based on willingness-to-pay data, which could predict the level of demand under different prices. The study will provide evidences for feasible and effective vaccination promotion strategies design and reasonable pricing and financing mechanisms design in China, to optimize the utilization of self-paid vaccines. By providing scientific evidence for HPV vaccines promotion, the study will contribute to reducing the prevalence of HPV, cervical cancer prevention and control, as well as improvements in women's health of China.

英文关键词： willingness-to-pay;HPV vaccines;demand prediction;theory of planned behavior;contingent valuation method