阿克苏河上游麦兹巴赫冰川湖突发洪水遥感监测与预警研究

项目名称： 阿克苏河上游麦兹巴赫冰川湖突发洪水遥感监测与预警研究

项目编号： No.41271082

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2013

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 上官冬辉

作者单位： 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所

项目金额： 85万元

中文摘要： 麦兹巴赫湖突发洪水几乎每年都有发生。随着全球气温变暖，冰川对冰湖的融水补给增多，冰湖库容增加，洪峰加大，溃决频率增加，溃决时间提前，对下游社会经济影响较大。本项目以中亚天山麦兹巴赫湖突发洪水为研究对象，通过遥感监测和地面调查相结合， 完善基于遥感的冰湖面积和浮冰监测方法，建立指示麦兹巴赫湖突发洪水的指标体系；通过建立湖体面积－容量关系，获取洪水总量；利于能量平衡模型分析冰雪的消融；利于遥感卫星产品分析山区降水，以此分析突发洪水发生的成因；在此基础上，通过野外调查冰坝物理特征、结构和短期气象观测，结合热力学模型，分析可能的最大洪峰量。最终达到预警麦兹巴赫湖突发洪水的时间、洪水总量和最大洪峰量的目的。

中文关键词： 冰川湖；突发洪水；遥感；预警；

英文摘要： The glacier lake outburst flood (GLOF) of Merzbacher almost occurs every year. Under the background of global warming, the melt water of Inylcheck glacier is increasing to supply for the lake, which leads to the lake storage capacity, peak and the frequency of GLOF increase, outbrust time in advance and great impact on the downstream socio-economy. In this study, Merzbacher glacier lake in Tienshan Mt., central Asia was selected to establish indicator instruction of GLOF of Merzbacher, based on the methods of glacial lakes and float ice extract improved by combining of remote sensing monitoring and ground surveys. Then, the Lake area - capacity relationship will be established to obtain the flood volume; energy balance of snow and ice will be used to calculate the ablation; the remote sensing date of TRMM and FY will be used to analyse the precipitaton in mountain. At last, we will analysis comprehensively the causes of the GLOF. Based on those knowledge, the maximum peak of GLOF will be modeled by using the thermo-mechanical model, the physical characteristics of the ice dam, short-term meteorological observations and others as an input parameter. Eventually, the early-warning the time of GLOF, volume and the maximum peak will be done by this research.

英文关键词： glacial lake；GLOF；remote sensing；early warming；