水资源管理决策过程的不确定性和决策行为模拟研究

项目名称： 水资源管理决策过程的不确定性和决策行为模拟研究

项目编号： No.41471448

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 天文学、地球科学

项目作者： 盖迎春

作者单位： 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所

项目金额： 80万元

中文摘要： 由于水资源管理问题涉及的领域越来越广，影响决策过程的不确定性因素越来越多，给决策带来的风险也越来越大。本项目拟将人类行为学和决策理论应用到水资源管理中，综合考虑决策者所处的外部环境和决策者自身对决策过程的影响，分析引起决策结果变化的不确定性源，建立不确定性评价模型，评价每种不确定性在决策过程中的可信度概率；以描述决策者在决策过程中对不同决策方案风险规避和偏好的参考点的变化为核心，建立决策行为模拟模型；将不确定性评价模型和决策行为模拟模型集成到已有的成熟的水资源管理决策支持系统中，模拟水资源管理决策过程。这对于改善水资源管理决策支持系统框架，减少纯理性决策带来的风险具有重要意义。

中文关键词： 流域水资源；模型模拟；人类活动；资源利用；风险评价

英文摘要： During water resources management decision-making more risks could be faced because of increasing uncertainties that influence decision-making processes and complexity of water resources management problems extended. Objective of the project is to apply the human ethology and decision-making theory to water resources management, and to improve the water resources management decision support system framework. Accordingly, an uncertainty assessment model would be developed by analyzing the uncertainty sources that influence decision-making processes and taking into account the effects on external environment and decision-makers' perceive to decision-making processes. Then belief probability of uncertainty would be calculated for decision-makers. In addition, the reference point would be calculated by using framework theory, which indicates decision-makers' behavior change to risk aversion and bias during choice of decision-making references. Decision-making behavior simulation model would be established according to prospect theory. Finally all of models would be integrated into the effective water resources management decision support system to simulate decision-making processes of water resources management. The coming research is significance for water resources management decision-makers to improve efficiency of water resources management by means of developing new water resources management decision support system framework and decreasing decision-making risk of water resources management.

英文关键词： Watershed water resource;Model simulation;Human activity;Resource utility;Risk estimation