Thanks to the high potential for profit, trading has become increasingly attractive to investors as the cryptocurrency and stock markets rapidly expand. However, because financial markets are intricate and dynamic, accurately predicting prices remains a significant challenge. The volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market makes it even harder for traders and investors to make decisions. This study presents a classification-based machine learning model to forecast the direction of the cryptocurrency market, i.e., whether prices will increase or decrease. The model is trained using historical data and important technical indicators such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence, the Relative Strength Index, and the Bollinger Bands. We illustrate our approach with an empirical study of the closing price of Bitcoin. Several simulations, including a confusion matrix and Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, are used to assess the model's performance, and the results show a buy/sell signal accuracy of over 92\%. These findings demonstrate how machine learning models can assist investors and traders of cryptocurrencies in making wise/informed decisions in a very volatile market.
翻译:随着加密货币和股票市场的迅速扩张,交易因其高盈利潜力而日益吸引投资者。然而,由于金融市场错综复杂且动态多变,准确预测价格仍是一项重大挑战。加密货币市场的波动性特质使得交易者和投资者更难做出决策。本研究提出一种基于分类的机器学习模型,用于预测加密货币市场的方向,即价格将上涨还是下跌。该模型利用历史数据及重要技术指标(如移动平均收敛散度、相对强弱指数和布林带)进行训练。我们以比特币收盘价的实证研究为例阐述该方法。通过混淆矩阵和接收者操作特征曲线等多项模拟评估模型性能,结果显示买卖信号准确率超过92%。这些发现表明,机器学习模型能够帮助加密货币投资者和交易者在高度波动的市场中做出明智/有依据的决策。