最佳治理和实施疫苗接种方案,以遏制COVID-19大流行 (Optimal governance and implementation of vaccination programs to contain the COVID-19 pandemic)

Mahendra Piraveenan,Shailendra Sawleshwarkar,Michael Walsh,Iryna Zablotska,Samit Bhattacharyya,Habib Hassan Farooqui,Tarun Bhatnagar,Anup Karan,Manoj Murhekar,Sanjay Zodpey,K. S. Mallikarjuna Rao,Philippa Pattison,Albert Zomaya,Matjaz Perc

from arxiv, Being submitted to Nature Human Behaviour journal as a "Perspective" category article, which is one of the categories of article in this journal

Once a viable vaccine for SARS-CoV-2 has been identified, vaccination uptake will determine our success in containing the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that game theory and social network models should be used to guide decisions pertaining to vaccination programs for the best possible results. In the months following the introduction of vaccines, their availability and the human resources needed to run the vaccination programs will likely be scarce in many countries. Vaccine hesitancy can also be expected from some sections of the general public. We emphasize that decision making under uncertainty and imperfect information, and with only conditionally optimal outcomes, is a unique forte of established game theoretic modelling. Therefore, we can use this approach to obtain the best framework for modelling and simulating vaccination prioritisation and uptake that will be readily available to inform important policy decisions for the optimal control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

翻译：一旦确定SARS-COV-2的可行疫苗,接种将决定我们在控制COVID-19大流行方面的成功。我们认为,应当利用游戏理论和社会网络模型来指导有关疫苗接种方案的决定,以便取得最佳结果。在引进疫苗后的几个月里,许多国家可能缺乏疫苗的供应和开展疫苗接种方案所需的人力资源。预计公众中的某些阶层也会出现疫苗犹豫不决的情况。我们强调,在不确定和不完善的信息中,而且只有有条件的最佳结果,决策是既定游戏理论模型的独特前沿。因此,我们可以利用这一方法获得最佳框架,用于建模和模拟疫苗接种的优先顺序和吸收,这种框架将随时可用,为最佳控制COVID-19大流行的重要政策决策提供信息。