Recent work has focused on nonparametric estimation of conditional treatment effects, but inference has remained relatively unexplored. We propose a class of nonparametric tests for both quantitative and qualitative treatment effect heterogeneity. The tests can incorporate a variety of structured assumptions on the conditional average treatment effect, allow for both continuous and discrete covariates, and do not require sample splitting to obtain a tractable asymptotic null distribution. Furthermore, we show how the tests are tailored to detect alternatives where the population impact of adopting a personalized decision rule differs from using a rule that discards covariates. The proposal is thus relevant for guiding treatment policies. The utility of the proposal is borne out in simulation studies and a re-analysis of an AIDS clinical trial.
翻译:近期研究集中于条件处理效应的非参数估计,但相关推断方法仍相对缺乏。本文提出一类用于检验定量与定性处理效应异质性的非参数检验方法。该检验能够融合关于条件平均处理效应的多种结构化假设,适用于连续型和离散型协变量,且无需样本分割即可获得易于处理的渐近零分布。此外,我们展示了如何定制化设计检验以探测以下替代假设:采用个性化决策规则与舍弃协变量的规则在总体影响上存在差异。因此,该提案对指导治疗策略具有实际意义。通过模拟研究和一项艾滋病临床试验的再分析,验证了本提案的实用价值。