Anytime valid sequential tests permit us to stop testing based on the current data, without invalidating the inference. Given a maximum number of observations $N$, one may believe this must come at the cost of power when compared to a conventional test that waits until all $N$ observations have arrived. Our first contribution is to show that this is false: for any valid test based on $N$ observations, we show how to construct an anytime valid sequential test that matches it after $N$ observations. Our second contribution is that we may continue testing by using the outcome of a $[0, 1]$-valued test as a conditional significance level in subsequent testing, leading to an overall procedure that is valid at the original significance level. This shows that anytime validity and optional continuation are readily available in traditional testing, without requiring explicit use of e-values. We illustrate this by deriving the anytime valid sequentialized $z$-test and $t$-test, which at time $N$ coincide with the traditional $z$-test and $t$-test. Finally, we characterize the SPRT by invariance under test induction, and also show under an i.i.d. assumption that the SPRT is induced by the Neyman-Pearson test for a tiny significance level and huge $N$.
翻译:任意时间有效的序贯检验允许我们基于当前数据随时停止检验,而不会使推断失效。给定最大观测数$N$,人们可能认为与等待所有$N$个观测值到达的传统检验相比,这必然以牺牲检验功效为代价。我们的第一个贡献是证明这种观点是错误的:对于任何基于$N$个观测值的有效检验,我们展示了如何构建一个任意时间有效的序贯检验,使其在$N$次观测后与原始检验完全一致。我们的第二个贡献是:我们可以通过将$[0, 1]$值检验的结果作为后续检验的条件显著性水平来继续测试,从而形成在原始显著性水平下保持有效性的整体流程。这表明任意时间有效性与可选延续性在传统检验中即可实现,无需显式使用e值。我们通过推导任意时间有效的序贯化$z$检验与$t$检验来例证这一观点,这两种检验在第$N$次观测时与传统$z$检验和$t$检验完全吻合。最后,我们通过检验诱导下的不变性刻画了序贯概率比检验的特性,并在独立同分布假设下证明:序贯概率比检验可由极小显著性水平与极大$N$值条件下的Neyman-Pearson检验诱导生成。