Bayesian Fixed-Budget Best-Arm Identification

Fixed-budget best-arm identification (BAI) is a bandit problem where the learning agent maximizes the probability of identifying the optimal arm after a fixed number of observations. In this work, we initiate the study of this problem in the Bayesian setting. We propose a Bayesian elimination algorithm and derive an upper bound on the probability that it fails to identify the optimal arm. The bound reflects the quality of the prior and is the first such bound in this setting. We prove it using a frequentist-like argument, where we carry the prior through, and then integrate out the random bandit instance at the end. Our upper bound asymptotically matches a newly established lower bound for $2$ arms. Our experimental results show that Bayesian elimination is superior to frequentist methods and competitive with the state-of-the-art Bayesian algorithms that have no guarantees in our setting.