Causal mediation analysis can unpack the black box of causality and is therefore a powerful tool for disentangling causal pathways in biomedical and social sciences, and also for evaluating machine learning fairness. To reduce bias for estimating Natural Direct and Indirect Effects in mediation analysis, we propose a new method called DeepMed that uses deep neural networks (DNNs) to cross-fit the infinite-dimensional nuisance functions in the efficient influence functions. We obtain novel theoretical results that our DeepMed method (1) can achieve semiparametric efficiency bound without imposing sparsity constraints on the DNN architecture and (2) can adapt to certain low dimensional structures of the nuisance functions, significantly advancing the existing literature on DNN-based semiparametric causal inference. Extensive synthetic experiments are conducted to support our findings and also expose the gap between theory and practice. As a proof of concept, we apply DeepMed to analyze two real datasets on machine learning fairness and reach conclusions consistent with previous findings.
翻译:原因调解分析可以解开因果关系的黑盒,因此,它是使生物医学和社会科学的因果关系路径脱钩的有力工具,也是评估机器学习公正性的有力工具。为了减少在调解分析中估计自然直接影响和间接影响时的偏差,我们提议了一种名为DeepMed的新方法,即利用深神经网络(DNN),在有效影响功能中交叉应用无限干扰功能。我们获得了新的理论结果,即我们的深Med方法(1) 能够实现半参数效率约束,而不会给DNN 结构设置带来宽度限制,以及(2) 能够适应骚扰功能的某些低维度结构,大大推进基于DNN的半参数因果关系推断的现有文献。我们进行了广泛的合成实验,以支持我们的调查结果,并暴露理论和实践之间的差距。作为概念的证明,我们运用深Med来分析两个关于机器学习公平性和得出与以往调查结果一致的结论的真实数据集。