During a long-running pandemic a pathogen can mutate, producing new strains with different epidemiological parameters. Existing approaches to epidemic modelling only consider one virus strain. We have developed a modified SEIR model to simulate multiple virus strains within the same population. As a case study, we investigate the potential effects of SARS-CoV-2 strain B.1.1.7 on the city of Moscow. Our analysis indicates a high risk of a new wave of infections in September-October 2021 with up to 35 000 daily infections at peak. We open-source our code and data.
翻译：在长期流行的流行病期间,病原体会突变,产生具有不同流行病学参数的新菌株。现有流行病建模方法只考虑一种病毒菌株。我们开发了经修改的SEIR模型,以模拟同一人口体内的多种病毒菌株。作为案例研究,我们调查SARS-COV-2菌株B.1.1.7对莫斯科市的潜在影响。我们的分析表明,在2021年9月至10月期间,新一波感染的风险很高,每天感染的病例最多达到35,000例。我们公开提供了我们的代码和数据。
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