Simulation on directed graphs is an important method for understanding the dynamics in the systems where connectivity graphs contain cycles. Discrete Stochastic Heterogeneous Simulator (DiSH) is one of the simulation tools with wide application, which uses regulator values to calculate state updates of regulated elements. Here we present a new simulation approach DiSH-trend which also takes into account the trends in regulating elements. We demonstrate the features of trend-based regulation, as well as hybrid regulation, which is a combination of the trend- and level-based approaches. The modeling capabilities are demonstrated on a small toy model, showcasing different functionalities. Real-world capabilities are demonstrated on a larger network model of food insecurity in the Ethiopian region Oromia. Adding trend-based regulation to models results in increased modeling flexibility, and hybrid regulation improves qualitative dynamic behavior prediction. With appropriate data, DiSH-trend becomes a powerful tool for exploring intervention strategies.
翻译:在定向图形上模拟是了解连接图形包含循环的系统动态的一个重要方法。 分层蒸气异质模拟器(DISH)是广泛应用的模拟工具之一,它使用调节器值计算受管制元素的状态更新。 我们在这里介绍了一种新的模拟方法DISH-趋势,它也考虑到调控元素的趋势。 我们展示了趋势调控以及混合调控的特征,这是趋势调控和水平调控的组合。 模型能力在小型玩具模型上展示,展示了不同的功能。 真实世界能力在埃塞俄比亚奥罗米亚地区较大的粮食不安全网络模型上展示。 添加基于趋势的调控以模型结果,提高建模灵活性,混合调控则改善定性动态行为预测。 我们用适当的数据, DISH- 趋势使探索干预战略的强大工具。